Politicians May Be Betting on Wars Using Prediction Markets

Imagine if politicians could bet money on wars they help decide — and keep the profits secret. That's the fear gripping Washington right now.

What Are Prediction Markets? Prediction markets (websites where people bet on future events) like Polymarket and Kalshi have exploded in popularity. Users can bet on anything from sports games to political events. One trader recently won $553,000 betting on a U.S.-Israeli military strike against Iran.

The Big Problem Here's what has lawmakers worried: • Politicians and their staff might have insider information (secret knowledge) about upcoming government decisions • They could use this info to place winning bets on these platforms • Current laws don't require them to report these profits — unlike stocks or crypto • Some platforms allow anonymous betting using VPNs (tools to hide your identity online)

Why This Matters Senator Jeff Merkley believes many government officials are already placing these bets. He's introduced new legislation to ban all politicians from using prediction markets. Currently, people are betting millions on questions like "When will U.S. troops enter Iran?" or "When will there be a ceasefire?"

The concern is simple: those making decisions about war and peace shouldn't be able to profit from those same decisions. Without proper oversight, the public may never know if their leaders are betting on the outcomes they control.

This is an AI-generated summary. Read the original article at: https://www.stlpr.org/npr/2026-03-14/with-boom-in-prediction-markets-some-lawmakers-worry-about-how-to-police-themselves