New Crypto Rules in US Have Just 30% Chance This Year, Expert Says

A new law that would finally create clear rules for cryptocurrency in the United States has only a 30% chance of passing this year, according to policy expert Ron Hammond from Wintermute (a company that helps people trade crypto).

The proposed law, called the Clarity Act, would solve a major problem: right now, nobody knows exactly which government agency should oversee different cryptocurrencies. This confusion has scared away big investors like banks and pension funds (retirement savings managers) who want to invest in crypto but fear breaking unclear rules.

Why the law matters: • It would clearly define which cryptocurrencies are securities (investments like stocks) versus commodities (goods like gold) • The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission - the stock market police) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission - the commodities market police) would know exactly what they can regulate • Big institutions could finally invest in crypto without legal worries

The biggest obstacle? Banks don't like it. Traditional financial institutions are fighting parts of the bill, especially rules about stablecoins (cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a steady value). While lawmakers are pushing to vote on the bill as early as April 20, Hammond warns that "these dates are moving" and the timeline keeps shifting.

Despite the challenges, Hammond sees "light at the end of the tunnel." If passed, this law would be the biggest regulatory breakthrough for crypto in the US, potentially unlocking billions in institutional investment. But with only a 30% chance of success this year, the crypto industry may have to wait even longer for the clarity it desperately needs.

*This is an AI-generated summary. Read the original article at: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/04/11/crypto-clarity-bill-has-30-chance-of-passing-this-year-wintermute-s-hammond-says*