Bitcoin Drop to $40,000 Would Be Extremely Rare, Says Analyst

Could Bitcoin really fall to $40,000? While some pessimistic traders think so, one analyst says that would be almost impossible based on historical data.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $78,000, which is about 40% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached in October. Some bearish traders (people who think prices will fall) are predicting it could drop all the way to $40,000 – a massive 70% fall from its peak.

However, analyst James Check says such a drop would be extraordinarily rare. He uses something called the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index (a tool that compares Bitcoin's current price to its historical averages) to make his point.

According to this index: • A drop to $40,000 would put Bitcoin in the 0.4th percentile (meaning only 0.4% of all Bitcoin prices in history have been this extreme) • This would be similar to Bitcoin trading at just $2 back in 2011 • Today's price of $78,000 sits at the 31.5th percentile (lower than average, but still normal)

What does this mean? While Bitcoin could theoretically fall to $40,000, it would be one of the most extreme price events in its entire history. Check notes that "there's no zero probability in markets," but emphasizes this would be "near-unprecedented."

For everyday investors, this suggests that while Bitcoin may continue to be volatile (prices moving up and down), a catastrophic drop to $40,000 is statistically unlikely based on historical patterns.

This is an AI-generated summary. Read the original article at: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/25/bitcoin-at-usd40-000-would-be-near-unprecedented-statistical-outcome-analyst-says